[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Bears Concede Defeat
Stock markets were generally higher again Thursday. The bond market retreated. On the surface
this isn't a bad thing because we made money in both markets by being long stocks and short bonds. We expected a
pullback in stocks into next week and that pullback may still happen even though it's looking
less likely now. But, it's possible that a much more dramatic move may be warming up for next week.
We have outlined a specific scenario we will need to watch for on the Dow Industrials 15-minute chart
which would certainly raise a few eyebrows if it occured -- for details, see our
Quarter-Hourly Chart
Comments for Subscribers
.
We'll also discuss the possibilities in detail on the Weekend Update.
For additional commentary for subscribers only, please use this link:
Daily Chart Comments
(comments there are posted by the next US trading session).
As for the mining stocks, recent weakness is likely to be ending soon as the Dollar Index
appears to be rallying in the final stages of its bear market rally:
The terminal diagonal triangle is a very weak Elliott Wave pattern. It only appears
in the last wave in a larger pattern. In this case, it is appearing in a wave (C) corrective
rally, indicating that the major downtrend is about to return to the US Dollar Index. It is the
only Elliott pattern in which the fourth wave can overlap the first wave. That's an indication
of just how weak the US Dollar Index is. One final thing about the pattern: at a minimum,
it is totally retraced. That means that once the current fifth wave up within the pattern is
completed (and it could be very soon), the US Dollar Index will move swiftly
back down to the wave (B) low shown in the chart -- and it could go much lower to test and
break below the all-time low near 80. We do expect the US Dollar Index will make an
all-time low during this bear market. And, it could come sooner than later.
Recent strength in the US Dollar Index has pressured not only the mining stocks, but the
entire stock and bond markets. US exporters are helped by a falling dollar and are hurt by
a rising dollar. A falling dollar is bullish in general for both stocks and bonds -- unless it
becomes an uncontrolled slide, such as occured in October 1987.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: The Not Ready For Prime Time Market
Stocks pushed the upper resistance polytrendlines higher on the short term charts,
but the bulls couldn't hold the high ground -- yet. There are signs that a trading
low is on the way, but at this point, the worm continues to work its way up the greased
pole and generally ends up sliding back down it.
Short term sentiment went into the overly-bullish category Wednesday,
not a good sign for the bulls on the short term horizon.
For additional commentary specific to the stock market for subscribers only, please use this link:
Daily Chart Comments
.
One stock which has been stuck in the mud is the poster child for the Dot-Com Bubble itself,
Microsoft. Although near term we're actually bullish on a rally, longer term things don't look
that great for B. Gates & Co.:
MSFT holds a fairly large weighting in the NASDAQ-100 Index, so a rally here could be a big
boost for the QQQQ (the ETF which tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index and trades like a stock on NASDAQ).
And, traditionally, the NASDAQ-100 Index will be the first index to rally off a market bottom,
so watch it carefully (ticker symbol NDX).
Please Note: Elliott Wave International is having another Free Week starting late Wednesday night.
This one should be especially good because it features many more stock markets and shorter-term,
more trading-oriented services (which tend to be much better markets to use Elliott Wave analysis
on than the longer term ones). Here are the details for signing up:
Announcement: Elliott Wave International is offering Market Clues' readers
another Free Week opportunity! Starting Thursday, April 7 at 12:01 a.m. EDT, you'll get a FreeWeek of complete access
to their stock market Specialty Services.
You will get a full week of Intraday Forecasts of U.S., Europe and Asia stock indices.
You'll get concise, no-nonsense forecasts throughout each trading day for the DJIA, S&P,
Nasdaq, Nikkei, DAX, FTSE, EuroStoxx 50, Hang Seng and more! They charge $4164 per
year for those services, but you'll get them free for an entire week.
Plus, you'll get complete access to Subscribers Only Extras like interviews, articles, special reports, their advanced online tutorial and more.
But, to access them, you have to sign up using this link: Club EWI FREE WEEK Signup Link: http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
Format for printing.
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Are the Oil Stocks Ready to Rally Again?
The short answer is "no". The long answer is that while a technical rally is possible,
the risk in being long the oil stocks is higher now than at any time in the recent past.
If this means oil prices are going to continue coming down (and we think it does), it's
good news for the economy.
Why do we say risk is high? Our Volume Oscillator study, which measures the up and
down volumes of every component in the Oil Index, went sharply negative at the recent
peak and has yet to show any sign of strength:
While the selling pressure remains very strong in the oil stocks, there are sectors
which are under strong buying pressure. And, from the looks of things, the current low-volatility
basing pattern in the stock market is setting up the perfect base for a rally in those sectors.
(For additional commentary for subscribers only, please use this link:
Daily Chart Comments
)
Please Note: Elliott Wave International is having another Free Week starting late Wednesday night.
This one should be especially good because it features many more stock markets and shorter-term,
more trading-oriented services (which tend to be much better markets to use Elliott Wave analysis
on than the longer term ones). Here are the details for signing up:
Announcement: Elliott Wave International is offering Market Clues' readers
another Free Week opportunity! Starting Thursday, April 7 at 12:01 a.m. EDT, you'll get a FreeWeek of complete access
to their stock market Specialty Services.
You will get a full week of Intraday Forecasts of U.S., Europe and Asia stock indices.
You'll get concise, no-nonsense forecasts throughout each trading day for the DJIA, S&P,
Nasdaq, Nikkei, DAX, FTSE, EuroStoxx 50, Hang Seng and more! They charge $4164 per
year for those services, but you'll get them free for an entire week.
Plus, you'll get complete access to Subscribers Only Extras like interviews, articles, special reports, their advanced online tutorial and more.
But, to access them, you have to sign up using this link: Club EWI FREE WEEK Signup Link: http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Building a Base
For additional commentary for subscribers only, please use this link:
Daily Chart Comments
(comments there are posted by the next US trading session).
Announcement: Elliott Wave International is offering Market Clues' readers
another Free Week opportunity! Starting Thursday, April 7 at 12:01 a.m. EST, you'll get a FreeWeek of complete access
to their stock market Specialty Services.
You will get a full week of Intraday Forecasts of U.S., Europe and Asia stock indices.
You'll get concise, no-nonsense forecasts throughout each trading day for the DJIA, S&P,
Nasdaq, Nikkei, DAX, FTSE, EuroStoxx 50, Hang Seng and more! They charge $4164 per
year for those services, but you'll get them free for an entire week.
Plus, you'll get complete access to Subscribers Only Extras like interviews, articles, special reports, their advanced online tutorial and more.
But, to access them, you have to sign up using this link: Club EWI FREE WEEK Signup Link: http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue.
Monday's market continued the base-building process. The bears continued their selling and were able to
push the Dow down early into the 10,350 price area (1168 on the S&P 500) and ran into extremely strong
buying pressure at that level which overcame the bears' selling pressure temporarily. This pattern shows that the bears are running out of ammunition to
push the market lower. The bulls were doing some serious buying and were able to push the market back up the hill.
By the end of the day, the battle basically ended in a draw.
Option traders continued bearish as they poured substantially more money into put options (bets
the market will be heading lower). The fact that these small traders have finally
been convinced that the market is heading much lower is a bullish indication that it is not.
The typical correction will end when these small traders pour about twice as much money into
puts as calls. On Monday, they poured about $1.23 into puts for every dollars' worth of calls, so
we probably have a little to go in the correction.
The coincident indicators (as opposed to the forward-looking indicators) are still bearish
and suggest the market has more work to do to build a base to rally. The good news is that
April is still likely to bring a substantial low from which the market will launch a great
rally! So, it's time to get out your shopping list.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Data Roils Markets
The monthly onslaught of data from the government caused a bit of volatility Friday,
as it always does. But, since it's basically data that is so "noisy", it's a wonder the
market even pays attention to it.
First the "Employment Report" was released and it was a big disappointment as it showed
only a little over a hundred thousand new jobs were created last month. That is, if you
don't think about the error bar associated with the data, which is over a hundred thousand
jobs itself! So, the true figure might be closer to a quarter million new jobs or an outright
loss of jobs last month. As we said, it's a wonder the markets even pay any attention to what
is a meaningless number. Of course, the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2%, down from 5.7%
a year ago, was totally ignored. It wasn't that long ago that most economists considered the
6% rate "Full Employment"!
On the other hand, as you know, the politicians in Washington conveniently "forget" to count those
who have been out of work so long they've stopped looking (or, at least, told the government
they've stopped looking). That (real) unemployment rate was 9.1% last month, down from a year ago
rate of 10.4%.
What is to account for this long period of substandard job growth? Actually, it's very
simple. The fast-rising productivity figures are the first clue. It's not that existing
workers are really that much more productive (although they are to some extent). It's that
lower level jobs are being automated out of existence. So, the lower-level worker
who lost their job a few years ago in the last recession, say taking orders at McDonald's,
for example, may find their local burger joint having customers order through a machine instead.
Self-service cashiers at places like your local supermarket or Home Depot represent not only
a big increase in productivity for those companies (and bigger profits to their owners),
they also represent an outright loss of low-paying jobs.
New jobs are being created in this economy. Employers in fact are finding it hard to
find qualified employees to fill those jobs! There just isn't a big demand for those
lower-level service workers anymore. Thus, jobs are plentiful while skilled applicants
are not. And this situation isn't going to change much because smarter and smarter robots are
going to displace human jobs as time goes on. This is a trend which boosts companies'
bottom lines while putting underskilled workers at a permanent disadvantage. In other words,
investors will profit while low-level workers will not.
The other data which the markets are concerned about are the inflation figures. After
a near-death experience with deflation a few years ago, markets are back to being scared
of the old bogey again. If inflation is coming back, you certainly want to be short of bonds.
The recent rally in the bond market is setting up a great opportunity to sell that market
short again (or add to your short position) for the next big leg down. Nowadays, it's easy
to be short of bonds via the inverse bond funds we've mentioned several times in the past.
So far this year, interest rates have been following a well-described polytrend channel (which
is an exclusive to our website, by the way). When interest
rates get down to the bottom of the channel, bonds can be shorted again. Profits can be taken when
rates get up to the top of the channel. Once rates finish this leg down, we think the next
leg up is going to be even stronger than the last one -- at least the top of the channel
is going to be a lot higher by then.
Our weekend comments are reserved for subscribers using this link:
Detailed Comments . . . .
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: The Long Term View
It's the end of the first quarter of 2005 and at these junctures, it's nice to sit back
and take the long term view of the stock market. The following chart illustrates some long term trends that have been in effect in the
S&P 500 Index and promise to continue into the future.
The first point we would like to make about the chart is the 2000-2002 resistance polytrendline.
That polytrendline was forecast in 2002 to bottom in March 2003, projecting a bottom in the downtrend
at that time. That projection turned out to be correct and the market made its final test of the
July and October 2002 lows at that time, then turned up. That March 2003 low is labeled (A), the
first leg down in the long term (secular) bear market. The market then moved up until it actually
tested that trendline in early 2004. At that point, labeled wave A, the market entered a long trading
range which constituted a wave B. In August 2004, that wave ended and wave C to the upside started
and we are currently in that leg up.
The second point we would like to make is that there are two T-Theory Ts on the chart (for more
information on T-Theory, see Terry Laundry's blog at
http://ttheory.typepad.com/terry_laundrys_t_theory_o). Briefly, the T-formation has a left
side at the beginning of a corrective period. The T is centered on a significant low and the
right side usually marks the peak of the rally which begins at that low. The first T is labeled,
"Terry Laundry's Advance-Decline T" and it starts in the late 'Nineties. It projects a continuing
rally into 2007. The second T is labeled, "Terry Laundry's Big Dumb T" and it projects a continuing
uptrend into the first week of March 2006. The important point to realize about these Ts is that
the long term uptrend in the stock market is likely to end no earlier
than late February 2006. And, it may very well continue into 2007.
It's interesting to see where the market might go if it makes it back to that 2000-2002
trendline at the termination of the Big Dumb T in March 2006 -- about 1700 on the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Index closed the first quarter at 1180.25.
The bottom line is that dips are buying opportunities for at least the next 11 months.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: NASDAQ Leads the Charge
The market rallied back Wednesday, the first day of this month's Buying Spree, with
NASDAQ in the lead. As you can tell from the chart, we had bullish divergence (prices moved
to a lower low while the volume oscillator made a higher low), the retracement was held to
about 50%, the long term uptrendline provided support and the failure to close below the lower
Bollinger Band was like they rang a bell at the bottom. As Tom O'Brien (http://www.TFNN.com)
is wont to say, "If they can't break it down, they'll break it up!" -- that's exactly what they
did on Wednesday:
The NASDAQ-100 Index (ticker NDX) is the index upon which the QQQQ ETF is based.
The normal pattern for the Monthly Buying Spree is for the rally to continue into the
second or third trading day of the next month. That would have the rally carry into Monday or
Tuesday.
For subscribers, additional market analysis for the stock and bond market is provided on today's daily
chart commentary page (see link below).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Stocks on Sale
The stock market is the only place where merchandise on sale doesn't attract buyers.
Or, perhaps, not initially. Actually, stocks on sale are very attractive to those who
perceive that momentum isn't the only factor which can push stock prices higher. This ability
to "look over the valley" distinguishes those who buy when stocks are on sale.
Our targets are within reach. We said we were looking for the S&P 500 Index
to reach this price area -- the index reached a low of 1163.69 on Tuesday, right in the
price area where we expect a low to be. In fact, the SPX failed to close below the lower
Bollinger Band. It had closed under that band on the 22nd, then moved back within the band,
but has yet to close below it again. Unless the index can close under it on this move down,
it has to be a bullish sign. That band is at 1157.22 right now.
What we don't have are significant bullish divergences -- yet. Perhaps the April
time target we've discussed on the Detailed Commentary for the end of wave C down will
come into play as the right side low of a double bottom. We should be at the left side
of that double bottom very soon if that is to be the pattern.
Indeed, the January leg down (wave A) showed a double bottom pattern: some indices made their absolute lows on the left
side (12 Jan), while others made slightly lower lows on the right side (24 Jan). In either case, those lows
were great buying opportunities for a trade.
Sentiment still leans on the bearish side, according to our real money readings of option calls
and puts. Since the crowd is almost always wrong (they
tend to be right only in the middle of a move, but very wrong at turns), we'll fade the
crowd on this one and say the market is going to prove them wrong once again.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Sentiment Bearish
The market rallied Monday and the option speculators saw it as a selling opportunity.
That's exactly the type of sentiment we like to see going into the Monthly (and
Quarterly) Buying Spree which starts this week in a stock market near you.
Every month and quarter, money managers put new cash to work buying stocks. This month,
investors are faced with a choice of leaving their money in the bond market, which has
seen losses for the year-to-date, or the stock market, which has seen losses for the
year-to-date. The choice seems obvious to a blind horse, but what do they know?
We kicked off our ETF Trader service Monday with a buy (the exact details
are reserved for subscribers, of course). Initially, we emailed the entire list, but
in coming days we will make it an opt-in list. And, initially it will be free to
all subscribers, but our intention is to eventually make it an extra-cost option
once we have fine-tuned it. Many traders have
told us they'd rather we do the work of market analysis and they'd rather just have
the buy and sell signals. So, we're adding this service expressly for those who are
more interested in plain "what to buy or sell" signals than process and analysis.
We feel that with the array of Exchange Traded Funds available to traders, it's an
ideal vehicle for the average trader.
Our main focus for this commentary will remain on the longer term trends.
The stock market is driven by psychology. And psychology now is bearish, quite bearish.
And bearish investors have sold already. In times like these, one must have a position.
When Edwin Lefevre wrote, as related by legendary trader Jesse Livermore in investment classic
Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator in 1922:
"What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began
to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I
ought to when I was right on the general market. The more I studied
the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently
suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his human
weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that
experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved
expensive to him, as it was to me.
"I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I
realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the
other customers `Well, you know this is a bull market!' he really
meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual
fluctuations but in the main movements -- that is, not in reading
the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in
Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want
to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money
for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is
no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of
early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've
known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began
buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which
should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably
matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who
can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the
hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has
firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true
that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade
than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet
become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about
doing as he doped out it must do. That is why so many men in Wall
Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the
third grade, nevertheless lose money. They beat themselves, because
though they had brains they can't sit tight. Old Turkey was dead
right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage
of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
"Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal
to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your
game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near
its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips
or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all
your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see -- or, if you
prefer, until you think you see -- the turn of the market; the
beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your
brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as
idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most
helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch
the last eighth -- or the first. These two are the most expensive
eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate,
enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the
continent."
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: They Do Ring a Bell at Tops and Bottoms
Timing the market works. And, it works very well. The market has dropped about
7% since the March 7th top and anyone with a typical diversified portfolio of stocks worth about
$100,000 would have avoided a hefty $7000 loss by selling when our indicators pointed toward
a top occuring right then. That's better than a $7000 gain, by the way,
because there's no capital gains tax due on it!
Getting out and avoiding a loss is one good thing. But, getting back in is more important
in the long run. Since 2000 the market has been essentially sideways. The blue chips have not
been able to recover more than about half of their early decade losses while the broad market has recovered
all of their losses and soared to substantial new highs. Overall, a broadly-diversified, buy-and-hold
investor is probably showing very slight gains for the 'Naughties. Traders, however, who have been
selling tops and buying bottoms all the way down and back up, are where the action is -- and are
making the big money. We told you back in 2000 that this was what to expect for the 'Naughties
and beyond. And that's exactly what we've gotten.
We had a great run in the stock market from 1982-2000, which followed a long trading range
market that started in the late 'Sixties as the country got mired in the Vietnam War. Once again,
we're in one of those long trading range markets with the country mired in another war. What worked
in the last go-'round is working again now. Surprised? These things move in cycles.
2005 is shaping up to be more of the same. If you're a subscriber to Market Clues, you're
getting the vital information you need to navigate this market. If you're not, it's
time to sign up for a free trial and see for yourself.
For subscribers, please click on this link for this weekend's
Detailed Comments . . . .
This week, we're launching a new service called ETF Trader which will give specific
buy and sell signals on several popular Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Initially, during the
shakedown cruise, signals will be free to members. Look for ETF Trader, coming soon
on the website!
We have also added a chart menu which shows only links to indices with volume oscillators.
The link to that page will be found in the daily chart section of the website. Look for
Daily Volume Oscillator Charts.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Inflation Soars; Interest Rates Steady
The latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday sent long term interest rates higher,
but the rise was not sustainable and rates closed about where they started:
Rates have come very far very fast and, as you can see from the chart above of 10-year note
rates, are fast approaching what could be a short term ceiling. Wednesday's reversal suggests
we may see a period of falling interest rates starting in mid-April before we see the uptrend resume in a big
way. Of course, because the trend is likely to be up for a very long time, the long term investor
should remain in reverse bond funds for that long term trend.
Rising interest rates have been blamed for hurting stock prices lately, but it's hard
to say there's reason to blame any one factor. The market was set up for a second
leg down in the correction which started on the first trading day of the year and we're
simply seeing that second leg play out right now. The fact is that most stock indices made
new highs in February and the trend is clearly to the upside in stocks. This leg down is
setting up one of those periodic buying opportunities which investors invariably miss by
selling at just the wrong time. The market is prone to periodically shaking the weak hands
from their shares and this is just one of those times.
Thursday is likely to be a light volume day due to the Friday holiday. It's not a
good day for traders. But, next week should be great for traders. That's something we'll
discuss in detail in this weekend's commentary (there will be no update on Thursday evening).
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
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by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Bonds: Rates Rally Sharply
Our intermediate term position in reverse bond funds gained more ground Tuesday as interest
rates rallied sharply higher on the back of another short term rate hike by the Federal
Reserve. Rates are moving within a rising polytrendline channel that promises further gains ahead.
However, rates are closing on the upper channel line. Purchases of reverse bond
funds made lower in the channel have done very well now, but risk is rising that a
short term top in rates is nearing. Consequently, we don't recommend adding to positions
here:
The stock market sold off hard on the rise in interest rates, but that's exactly what
we expected to happen after a brief, countertrend rally. Traders should avoid holding positions
when big news announcements are made and Tuesday's sudden selloff hit longs' stops, sending
the market plunging toward our correction targets.
The NYSE Composite Index money flow line moved up sluggishly on the rally. The late selloff
looked like a waterfall of selling pressure, which may be cathartic to the market:
Look for the market to start building a base as we near the end of month period. If smart
money is accumulating stocks, we should see it on our various indicators which provide us an
insider's glimpse into the workings of the market.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
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by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Market Finds Support
The stock market sold off Monday as expected, but found support as selling pressure
dried up. This is likely to simply be a brief intermission in the downtrend, however,
and further losses are likely as the market continues to build a base from which to
mount the next rally.
The S&P 500 Index is gearing up to take the lead soon as the small- and mid-cap
stocks, which have led the market higher since the late 2002 bottom, falter in the face
of higher interest rates. Although real interest rates are still very low relative to
historic levels and are still very stimulative to the
economy, they are well off their historic lows. In fact if the Fed raises short term
rates this week (the markets are giving a ¼% rate hike a 100% chance of occuring,
with an 8% chance that the hike will be ½%), they will have almost tripled
interest rates since the current round of hikes started. Despite this persistent rise
in rates, however, Fed policy is still stimulative to the recovering economy -- a rise of
at least 1% more would be needed to simply make that policy neutral. This long period of
stimulation is likely to continue the economic recovery for at least a couple of years.
And, when the US Dollar Index puts in a bottom later this year, foreign buying of US
stocks will kick this bull market into overdrive. To foreign buyers, rising stocks will
translate into double-barrelled gains as currency translation becomes very favorable.
In the late 'Nineties, stock market returns in the US for foreign investors averaged
over 60% per year for several years in a row due to this phenomenon of rising stock prices
and a rising US Dollar.
From this point on, however, the growth stocks will be taking command from the value stocks
which have led the market to this point:
Dips are buying opportunities in this bull market. The S&P 500 Index, shown above
in the weekly chart, has support at the prior a-wave low of 1163.75 while the
39-Week moving average is currently at 1160.29, giving us a good estimate for where
this market should find support. That's also a key milestone for the market as it represents
the 50% retracement level of the 2000-2002 decline in the S&Ps, a level the market
bounded over late last year. A quick test of that former resistance price to prove it
is now support and the market should be free to rumble to the upside.
Sentiment indicators show that short
term traders have gotten to the overly-bearish point of view and are in need of
a quick rally to turn them bullish once more. Then, the market should be able to retest
that 1160 area again.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Nearly Five Waves Down
Since the B-wave high of March 7th, the stock market has declined sharply. Many bearish
divergences warned us that this decline was ahead. Last week, Quad Witching Week, the option
sellers were not able to levitate stock prices to cause Maximum Pain for option buyers -- that's
a sign that the downtrend is strong because in an average month, the maximum amount of pain is
inflicted on option buyers at expiration (and profits are maximized for those who sell options).
But, no trend lasts forever and a countertrend rally is coming. The only question is "When?"
That's what we'll discuss -- along with several other topics -- in this weekend's
Detailed Comments.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: An Oversold Bounce
Our short term trading indicator flipped to the bullish case Thursday morning and stayed there for
the rest of the day. But, the rally was not impressive, more of an oversold bounce and not much of one
at that. It's clear that the larger trend is down as option manipulators have not been able to
pull prices back up to the Maximum Pain points for the various stocks and indices this month.
They have only one more trading day to work their magic in
levitating stocks to the price where option speculators will lose the maximum amount of money. If they
do succeed, next week could be quite interesting on the downside as that artificial levitation
goes by the boards.
We thought we'd feature a chart illustrating T-Theory today. T-Theory was invented by
Terry Laundry and has been credited as his main tool in making millions of dollars in the
stock market (it's also prominently credited in Marty Schwartz' best-selling book entitled
Pit Bull). Terry has started podcasting his comments every Thursday at
http://ttheory.typepad.com/terry_laundrys_t_theory_o/
and they are highly recommended. Here's a chart illustrating a "T" we constructed on the
Value Line Index which pinpointed March 7th as a termination day:
The chart also illustrates our Volume Oscillator with example bullish divergences marked in green and
bearish divergences marked in red. It has turned negative on the stock market in
recent days. We'll discuss what our various technical indicators are saying, including a very specific
time at which the current downturn is likely to end, in this Weekend's Detailed Commentary, which
should be available Saturday afternoon for subscribers.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Consolidation
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
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Stocks: Bearish Divergence
Our short term trading indicator remained on a sell signal given Tuesday afternoon, except for
a brief flip-flop mid-morning Wednesday. The Dow continued to plummet, falling 112 points. It's
now down over 350 points from its March 7th high. That date marked a very profitable sell signal
on our short term trading indicator, one that wasn't reversed until last Monday. The fact that
the indicator stayed in the sell mode for an entire week suggests that the downtrend is very
strong. Traders should be concentrating on the dominant trend in the market, which is now firmly
down.
Volatility has risen sharply over the last week and the days of tight trading stops is
just a pleasant memory now. However, the fact that the downtrend is strong favors higher profits when
you do catch that trend correctly.
That doesn't mean there won't be countertrend rallies, of course. We thought there might be
one Wednesday, but sellers proved as strong as they were in the first half of January. We're
counting this downtrend as a wave C, the second leg down in the correction which started on that
first day of January. If that is the operative count (as it appears likely), wave C is likely to
test the 39-week moving average in the S&P 500 at 1157.
The bearish divergence that built up on many indices is being resolved:
The lower Bollinger Band should provide temporary support. Indeed, bargain hunting came
into the market Wednesday near the lows, suggesting a countertrend rally is building. However,
the sellers have grown strong and any lull in selling is likely to be very temporary. We have
an estimated low date for the Wave C bottom shown on the DJVOLOSC chart on the website. That
low is likely to represent a great buying opportunity for both traders and investors.
The bond and gold markets benefitted from flight-to-safety buying from the stock market
selling. Harmony, one of our holdings, was especially strong; it's not hard to see why when
you see that the price of gold in Rand is soaring. For each 1% rise in the price of gold in
Rand, Harmony's profits rise by 10%. Since 22 Feb, the price of gold in Rand is up more
than 7%.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: When Greenspan Speaks . . . Traders Listen!
For traders, this has been a choppy week. After getting a buy signal on Monday, Tuesday started off
nicely on the upside. But, when Greenspan told Congress that Social Security
was headed for insolvency without immediate action, the reaction among traders was
to sell and listen to the details later. With trailing stops, profits were preserved,
but the market fell sharply intraday, ending near Monday's lows.
This should not have been news to Congress, which has for decades used Social
Security tax income as its piggy bank to pay for bloated government largesse. When
Greenspan headed a committee in 1983 to shore up Social Security, he probably didn't
realize that all the extra taxes every worker in America had to pony up as a result
of his committee's recommendations to ensure the soundness of the system would instead
be siphoned off by Congressional leeches. Those same
leeches are now going to have to come back to those same workers and beg for more taxes to
pay for those diverted funds. It's no wonder Greenspan pulled no punches in bluntly telling
Congress they were heading for insolvency.
In any case the markets did not like what they heard at all. Our short term trading
indicator flipped into sell mode two hours before the NYSE closing bell as the market
plummeted. This is just the kind of market psychology typical of a wave C down, so we
may very well see a waterfall decline between now and early April.
But, first, we have monthly options expiration, which should, by all rights, see the
market rally into Friday's closing bell (if Maximum Pain controls March expiration, that
is). Maximum Pain for the QQQQs is 37.625, while the QQQQ closed at 37.04, indicating we
should see a modest 1.58% rally in the NASDAQ-100 Index over the next three trading days.
We suspect, though, that will be the last hurrah for the market and next week a swift and
relentless decline could persuade many of the bullish persuasion to abandon their position.
In fact, such a change of sentiment would be refreshing, especially considering their
current overly-bullish position -- not a healthy picture on a day of double-digit
declines all around.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Trading Bottom in Place
The bears kept trying to push the stock market lower Monday, but failed miserably. This
led to a late day rally that sent prices higher into the close.
We got a buy signal from our trading indicator, but the market certainly didn't show
strength for either the bulls or the bears for most of the session. Still, it does appear
that we have an upchannel in the market in place:
Last week's leg down counts fairly well as an Elliott 5-wave move. That would
fit a wave 1 within a wave C decline:
If this is the correct pattern call, this rally we're in now could just be a wave 2, typically
retracing 38-62% of wave 1, before wave 3, usually the strongest wave, would carry the market sharply
lower into the end of March. A wave 4 upward correction would then carry the market into the first
week of April. Finally, a wave 5 would test the low of wave 3, setting up a powerful advance to follow.
If you're trading this market, it's basically irrelevant whether the market actually traces out this
pattern. That's because you're using trailing stops to protect your position. However, it is a nice
heads-up to consider the possibilities so that it's no surprise if it does pan out. And, if it does,
it would be the perfect medicine this market needs to get the crowd bearish going into the 10-week
cycle low, which is due in the late March - early April period of time.
Sentiment suggests the crowd is getting overly-bullish here -- and that's a sign
to watch out for a reversal.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Down
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
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bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
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Stocks: The Crowd Gets Bearish
If you've followed our recommendations, your bond position is doing very well now
that long term interest rates are rising rapidly up through the polytrendline channel we
identified last year. And, our short term sell signal in the stock market has turned
out to be very profitable. Our Model Portfolio, which is designed to stay fully invested
in the stock market, backed off just a bit last week as the market came down, but overall
profits on the total portofolio continued to rise.
Last week, the stock market made another all-time high, then sold off in a correction.
Our short term VLE-DJ indicator signaled SELL on Monday
afternoon. The following table summarizes the results:
| Cash Index | Value at Time SELL Signal Was Given | Value at Friday's Close | Percentage Change |
|---|
| Dow Industrials | 10945.8 | 10774.4 | -1.57% |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 1227.74 | 1200.39 | -2.23% |
|---|
| Russell 2000 | 645.3 | 626.37 | -2.93% |
|---|
| S&P 600 Small Cap | 337.13 | 327.12 | -2.97% |
|---|
| Value Line | 1800.3 | 1760.86 | -2.19% |
|---|
| NASDAQ-100 | 1543.86 | 1505.64 | -2.48% |
|---|
Now what? It is interesting to see that the S&P 500 Index found support Friday right
on the rising trendline:
This should be good enough to start an upward correction since the bounce off the daily basis
trendline will be interpreted by technicians as bullish and options sentiment has slipped into
the bearish category (sentiment is a contrary indicator). But, it probably won't last long or carry far
because the Volume Oscillator did not give us any bullish divergence on the low.
Additional market analysis for this weekend for subscribers will be found by following
this link: Detailed Comments.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Dow Holds; Will the Rest of the Market Follow?
We thought perhaps we'd get a buy signal Thursday (we've been on a short term
trading sell signal since Monday afternoon), but did not do so. Despite that, the
Dow had an oversold rally.
It hasn't been a real rout to the downside yet: the leading sectors, the Russell 2000,
S&P Small Caps, etc., are only down about 3%, so it hasn't really done serious damage
to the uptrend. However, a blue-chip led recovery probably indicates we have a lot more
downside potential ahead this month.
The Bradley has once again proven invaluable as a confirming indicator for a
significant trading turn:
The turn due on the 7th of March was a solid top (note that the Bradley only identifies turns,
not highs or lows). It was confirmed by significant bearish divergences on our volume-based oscillators.
The volume oscillators have a great track record of identifying turning points via bullish
and bearish divergences. The former occurs when price moves to a lower low while the oscillator
remains above its prior low. The latter occurs when price moves to a higher high while the oscillator
remains below its prior high.
As far as investments are concerned, the Semiconductors continue to build a base for a
run to the upside. We aren't seeing any sign of bullish divergence there yet, however, which
argues that any attempt to breakout here will fail (red lines identify bearish divergence and
green lines bullish divergence):
The oscillator remained below the zero line Thursday and has not diverged bullishly yet.
Interestingly, we may soon see one of the biggest dogs in the market also
make a run to the upside: Microsoft could be ready to roll up (although, long term we think the stock
will be setting up for a severe crash to the downside in 2006).
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Blue Chips Get Hammered
Errata: Yesterday, we were referring to Eldorado (EGO) rather than Echo Bay, of course.
Traders still like this market. After the sell signal from our short term trading indicator
on Monday, the indices have given back quite a few points and the string of gains from that
short term trading indicator (VLE-DJ), on both the long and the short side, just keeps growing.
The long term stock portfolio gave some gains back on Wednesday with the market down,
which makes the short term trading gains a welcome addition to our overall investment capital position.
Of course, our short position in the bond market is finally giving us some nice gains as that
bubble bursts. That's a welcome change after being underwater early on in that position. It's also a good
argument in favor of scaling into a long term position. As interest rates rise, it just adds to
our gains:
For the stock market, the bearish divergences we pointed out over the weekend have hit this market like a ton of
bricks. But, since we think the trend is still up, Thursday may very well bring a reversal -- and a buy
signal on our short term VLE-DJ indicator.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Trading Range
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Traders Like It
The short term downtrend in stocks continued Tuesday after the trading sell signal
we got on Monday afternoon (via subscriber website Trading Page). Per standard procedure,
traders should use trailing buy stop orders to protect profits on positions entered on the short
side, especially since it's very probable that this is just a reaction in a
continuing uptrend. In other words, whether or not a buy signal is generated, that stop is your
protection.
The market is shifting gears from the old leaders to new leadership (which has yet to
fully emerge and could take some time to do so). The old leadership, exemplified here by
the Russell 2000 Index of smaller stocks is clearly showing bearish divergence:
This doesn't mean the bull market is over -- far from it. But, it does mean that a transition
period is ahead in the indices as we shift from a broad-based bull market to a blue-chip-based
bull market. This happened in the 'Nineties: the broad market led the recovery out of the recession
of 1990-1992. The Value Line Index outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a factor of 2:1 from 1990-1994. 1994 saw the
Fed's tightening moves take their toll on the bond market, sending bonds plunging in price while
stock indices treaded water for almost a year. When the bull market resumed in 1995, the blue chips took
the lead and didn't look back. The tech sector went into orbit as the frothy Bubble expanded.
Major market indices returned more than 30% per year for several years in a row.
Longer term investors should be holding positions now, weeding out weak shares and replacing
them with stronger stocks.
The gold stocks certainly warrant holding or even adding to positions. Echo Bay broke out
Tuesday on reasonably good volume and appears headed for a test of the overhead resistance line.
Even Harmony was able to break through its overhead resistance trendline. According to Jim
Sinclair, gold is heading for $1000/ounce and that could certainly put some meat on those
mining stocks' bones!
As far as we're concerned, we're confident of $500/ounce, a level likely to be achieved
soon. As long as gold moves inversely to the US Dollar, such a projection should be
considered conservative. Of course, we have higher targets, but "first things first."
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· Daily Chart Comments
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
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by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Trading Range in the Stock Market
The lines have been drawn and the bulls and bears are facing off across the playing field.
The bears haven't been able to get much of anything going on the downside and, while the
bulls have been impressive in their offense, have done little more than marginal new high records
recently. When the laggard indices broke out last week,
it encouraged a few souls to buy, but it was not an impressive effort by the bulls at all.
The most likely course from here is a trading range that frustrates both camps.
As usual, traders win the game in a virtually trendless market.
The FTSE-100 Index is probably sending the right message here as it struggles to
rally off the base it built recently. The FTSE is one of the best leading indicators
for the US market and its message is that the market has reached a point where it
just needs to rest for awhile:
The 50% retracement price is a natural barrier to further rally.
Thus, it becomes a stock-pickers market. So far this year, the big winners have been
the resource stocks and they should continue to do well for the rest of the year (recall
our projections for Gold, Silver and, in particular, one of the mining stocks we hold which has
a very clear pattern with an easily identifiable target).
Our 20-Day ETF Heat Map shows that recent outperformers in ETFs (Exchange-Traded
Funds, which are mutual funds which trade like stocks) include:
- XLE, in the Energy Sector, with a 14.24% gain over the last four weeks,
- IYE, an Oil and Gas Fund, with a 13.74% gain over the last four weeks,
- EWZ, a Brazilian Fund, with a 13.07% gain over the last four weeks.
If you're looking for individual stocks rather than funds, check out our
reports, such as the Stock Selection List by Sector Timeliness and Long & Short Term Stock Timeliness.
These reports rate every stock in our 6863-stock database on a daily basis, both from the point of
view of that stock versus the market, but also by a top-down sector approach.
It's no surprise that the top five sectors are oil and gas related, currently led by
XNG (Natural Gas) and OIX (Oil Index). Note that OIX is a sector index on which we keep
a volume oscillator, which is built up from each component stock's up and down volumes
into a composite indicator not based upon price. This gives us another dimension which
reveals more clearly the actions of the "big money" in moving into and out of the sector.
We also currently feature Volume Oscillators for XAU, HUI, NDX, SOX, SPX, DJ, VLE, TRAN
and RUT.
The surprising news is that the tech sector, which has been down long enough to
cool the ardor of the most passionate geek investor, is looking more and more like
it wants to turn the corner and trend higher. Does that mean the Tech Bubble is back?
Not really, but it does mean that the sector is making a comeback in a mature form
that's based upon real profits and sustainable growth.
Short term traders got another timely signal Monday, while long term
investors should be looking to accumulate strong stocks on dips (funding the
purchases either with new cash, by selling the poorer performers like IBM, or both).
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
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Stocks: An Upside Jobs Surprise
Stocks rallied Friday on a dose of surprisingly good news on the Employment Report
released by the Labor Dept. It seems that over a quarter of a million new jobs were
created, far more than the consensus expected. That sent stocks through the roof to new
all-time highs (except for some notable laggards).
One thing to remember amidst all the celebration is that this "new jobs" figure is
not a precise number. The Labor Dept (BLS) itself says, "There is about a 90-percent chance, or level of confidence,
that an estimate based on a sample will differ by no more than 1.6 standard errors from the "true" population value because of sampling error.
BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-percent level of confidence....
At an unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, the 90-percent confidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment is about ±280,000...."
What this means is that the reported number of new jobs created in February, 262,000,
could, with a 90% chance, actually represent a loss of as much as 18,000 jobs or a gain of as
much as 542,000 jobs -- or anything in between. There's even a small (10%) chance that more jobs could
have been lost or more could have been gained. In other words, this number the market so loves is
subject to a huge error bar!
Still, the markets took it as good news. Even the bond market liked the number, even though it
represents another argument that the economy is growing at a rate not commensurate with a long
term interest rate in the 4-5% zone. It certainly suggests that the gargantuan
Federal budget deficit, not to mention the need to import, on a daily basis, almost 2 billion dollars
from foreign investors to cover our bloated current account deficit, won't be balanced anytime
soon. The confidence of the bond market in the Federal Reserve seems to be keeping interest
rates low; the feeling seems to be that the falling US Dollar will lead to an eventual
narrowing of the deficit (this was the conclusion of a recent Federal Reserve
study).
The markets are clearly climbing a Wall of Worry as high as any we've seen in the last few
decades. Of course, Walls of Worry are bull market phenomena, not the stuff of bear markets.
We're still 100% invested in the stock market here and our Model Portfolio is up 9.68% for the
year after a bit of profit-taking hit some of its high-flyers midweek.
We'll take a look at stocks around the world and see what's next in this week's
Detailed Comments . . . .
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
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bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
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Stocks: Monthly ER Time Again
It's that time of month again -- the Employment Report due out at 8:30am Friday morning
will likely set the tone for the markets going into the weekend once again. January's
disappointing jobs figure, released February 4th, caused the bond market to rally into a very significant top:
While the consensus seems to be looking for a strong jobs number, the productivity figures
released Thursday morning suggest a retarded jobs creation number may be in store. Increased
productivity has plagued the recovery as firms see increased earnings while deferring hiring
to meet increased business. This is, of course, good for the bottom line and shareholders, but
not so good for those seeking jobs. The true unemployment rate still hovers at a stubbornly high
level of 9.3% (the true unemployment rate includes those who are not
counted in the official figure but are included in an appendix to the official report as item U-6).
The bond market loves disappointing jobs figures, of course. A rally in the bond market
back to the old support line in TLT (see chart above) is a real possibility as that market
completes its topping pattern.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
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bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
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Stocks: Semis Not Ready For Prime Time
Short Term Trading: The market has hit a short term peak. That assessment was confirmed late
in the day when our VLE-DJ indicator reversed into sell mode. This is likely to be another slide down
the greased pole to setup a break up and out of this trading range in coming weeks.
Longer Term Investing: In recent days we've seen that the Semiconductor Sector stocks have been strong as
they challenged the overhead resistance line, even nudging it slightly higher on the last
surge. However, the chart below shows that volume is diminishing and diverging bearishly
against that last high. This is strong evidence that we need at least one more refreshing
dip to gather strength for a good breakout to the upside:
If we do get a breakout on diminishing volume, it would probably represent a short-lived
rally attempt that is destined to fail before too long. That is, unless we see the volume
oscillator pick up strength on the rally.
We suspect that SOX is still the best leading indicator for the NASDAQ high tech sector.
The second half of the year is likely to see strength return to that beaten-up part of the
market which was so hard hit during the 2000-2002 recession (the NASDAQ-100 Index lost 80%
of its value in that debacle).
Spotlight on Cambior
Reuters says,
"Cambior Inc. is engaged in exploration, development and mining of gold deposits in North and South America. The Company holds a 50% interest in a niobium mine, and, from time to time, reviews the potential production of other metals and minerals to complement its gold mining operations. Cambior's activities were largely focused on the construction and development of the Rosebel project, which is scheduled to reach commercial production in 2004. The Company's revenues are generated predominantly from the sale of gold, with the remaining portion from the sale of ferroniobium, a strengthening additive used in the steel alloy industry. Cambior also has investments in the Carlota copper project located in the Globe-Miami mining district in Arizona, and in the Camp Caiman gold project that lies approximately 45 kilometers southeast of the capital city of Cayenne in French Guiana."
The technicals suggest the long contracting triangle is a continuation pattern which will resolve
into a thrust rally:
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
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Stocks: Market Powers to a New High
Short Term Trading Comments: Tuesday saw the rally which started late in Monday's session continue. Our short term
trading buy signal on VLE-DJ remained solid into the close. Both the S&P 400 (Mid Caps)
and S&P 600 (Small Caps) Indices closed in all-time record high territory. The Elliott Wave
interpretation suggests that the Point of Recognition is rapidly approaching and a powerful
wave 3 rally is underway. Short-covering could spark a fire under this market under
the right conditions very soon. Traders are reminded that we always suggest use of a trailing
stop order to protect accumulated profits, or staunch any losses on a reversal move in the
market. If your broker doesn't offer trailing stop orders, we suggest using Xpresstrade.com,
a firm with which we have personal experience.
Long Term Investment Comments: One of the things we like to do is to read comments
by those analysts whose views on the market differ from our own. Actually, we don't really
like to do it, but it is something we need to do to make sure our analysis is holding up
under the heat of the opposite viewpoint. One of the alternative views we've read has been McHugh's thrice-weekly
bearish outlook. Now that he's gone from free to $250/year, we'll forgo that chore (it was
worth reading when it was free, but we wouldn't pay a single penny for his advice).
But, we're always looking for good contrary opinion, so if you have a similar bearish
analyst you think we ought to check out, don't hesitate to make a suggestion.
Tonight, we have to report that, at the ripe age of one month, our Model Portfolio had
a setback Tuesday. No doubt our overweight position in mining stocks had something to do
with it. It's still up 8.44% since inception.
We're not going to be concerned with a minor pullback in the mining stocks here. It's
all part of a basing pattern. When you consider that gold is moving inversely to the US
Dollar Index and that the long term trend in DX is likely to continue lower over the long
haul, dips are buying opportunities in the mining stocks. Here's the monthly chart of the
US Dollar Index to illustrate the point:
We're not claiming that DX will stay under that polytrendline all the way until April 2010,
the date the polytrendline bottoms. But, we are saying that the trend may very well remain down until then.
And, that implies that the Dollar Index has quite a bit of room left to fall before this
secular decline is finished. But, there will be cyclical rallies (also known as bull
markets) that will interrupt the decline temporarily. They will set the dollar up for the next
waterfall decline, in fact. By the time we get to 2010, we suspect
that bullish sentiment toward the US Dollar will be at record lows. In mid-February, bullish
sentiment toward the dollar stood at 33½% according to WhisperNumber.com, suggesting
that there are quite a few investors thinking the dollar has made a bottom.
And, in 2010 bullish sentiment
toward gold is likely to be at record highs as it soars.
The price of gold could easily surpass $1000/ounce.
But, of course, that's going to be its price in cheaper dollars by the time we get there.
In mid-February, sentiment toward gold was only 6.6%, down from 15.7% two months earlier.
Those are still very low sentiment numbers toward gold. Mining stocks
are valued on the gold in the ground and should continue to be an excellent way to invest
for the long term trend lower in the US Dollar.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Monday Blues Hits Stocks
If you're trading this stock market, your trailing sell stop order was likely executed
Monday morning, taking profits on autopilot. It was a good run while it lasted. The selloff
came as a surprise for the last trading day of the month. The broad market advances 70% of
the time on the last trading day of the month, but Monday was in the 30% category.
This market has had a pattern of taking two steps up and one step back. In that light
Monday's quick decline fits the pattern. Our short term systems quickly switched back to
buy signals before the close of trading Monday. Although there is that monthly tendency
for the market to rally during the first part of the month, the selloff Monday could be
part of a larger leg down, so caution is well-warranted here.
The selloff didn't hurt our Model Portfolio. It gained slightly on the day and now
stands up 9.65% at the one-month mark.
For longer term holders, we don't see any real warning signs that the market has topped
yet. In fact, recent weakness has been greeted as buying opportunities. That hasn't changed.
And, this has taken place without the leadership of the tech stocks. A quick look at the
Accumulation-Distribution Charts at http://www.marketclues.net/img/d2/
will quickly reveal that many of the high-tech sector indices had been in steep dives until
recently. This indicates strong insider sales and a warning that the sector has not turned
around yet. However, you will also notice that many of these sectors' accumulation-distribution
curves have flattened out and are beginning to base. This indicates to us that the high tech sectors
will be leading the market higher in the future.
The Semiconductor Index (SOX) likely holds the key to just when high tech will make its return.
Its Accumulation-Distribution Curve is showing a strong pattern:
And, the overhead resistance line in SOX's price chart shows signs of bending -- Monday's session
saw the index close lower, but not before that line was nudged higher:
A turn up in tech may be within a month or two of happening. Stay tuned.
A Market Clues subscription is still the best bargain around at just 30¢ per day. We don't know
how long we can continue to offer the service at this ridiculously low rate, so if you haven't signed
up for a paid membership, do so today! Other services charge much more for much less information. One
service is switching from $240/year to $480/year on March 1. Another service is going from free to
$250/year. We think our information would still be a buy at $1000/year, but we have tried to price
it so that the average investor can afford it. But, it seems that, in this business, a high subscription
price makes the service more attractive, so we're considering a big hike in price in the near future.
Note: Due to the volume of email we're sending out now and the many spam filters that are blocking
email, starting on March 1st, we will be sending out daily email updates only to regular and current trial
subscribers. So, if you haven't signed up to receive updates via RSS, please see
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If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Monthly Buying Spree
After the short term (trading) buy signal Thursday, we were glad to see follow-thru Friday.
The Dow added 0.86% to Thursday's gains, but that wasn't the best news. The broad market
Value Line rose 1.19%, Russell 2000 1.57%, Small Caps 1.59% and Semiconductors 2.2% (ending
just below the resistance line we showed on Thursday). Although the NYSE Composite finished
up barely more than 1%, it was enough for a brand-new, all-time high record close. The sign
of a truly strong index is its ability to hold up during the selling squalls, then quietly
move to a record high without attracting much attention from the crowd. The NYSE Composite
is turning out to be a real leading index now.
We hit the headwinds earlier in the week as the market sold off hard, but our Model Portfolio
came through the storm in great shape. It's now up 9.25% and it will only be a month old on Monday.
It looks like our old friend, the Monthly Buying Spree, may be back in town
this week. This is the period of time starting on the day before the last trading day of the
month and ending on the third trading day of the next month. Traditionally, new money
for investment in the stock market comes in during this period of time and it often is
put to work buying stocks. So far, so good as the rally has gotten off to a great start.
What's ahead? Things look good to go for the coming week, at least for the bulls.
There are a few markets with danger signals flashing, however, and we discuss them, as well
as many markets with more positive outlook in this weekend's
Detailed Comments
for subscribers (including
free trial subscribers, of course).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Sellers Fail to Hold the Rally Back
The stock market rallied Thursday after an absence of selling pressure abruptly turned
a dull and boring session into a strong rally day. We expected volatility in both directions,
but only got it on the upside. That's a very bullish sign of strength.
Traders following our short term trading indicator (VLE-DJ) found it turning
bullish at midafternoon on Thursday after being on a sell signal from Thursday of last week.
One of the sectors we think is preparing for a breakout is the Semiconductors. The
chart of SOX shows gathering strength just below resistance:
Our Model Portfolio continues to gain steadily and is now up 7.54% since we restarted it just
about one month ago. Designed to be a slow but steady grower, it has certainly lived up to expectations so far.
Note that it is designed to produce long term gains as distinguished from our short term indicators.
This weekend, we'll go into detail about several markets, including
Oil, US Dollar and Foreign Currencies, Silver, Gold, Mining Stocks, Grains, Bonds, Stocks and Stock Market Indices, Canadian Stock Market, Australian Dollar and Stock Market and the London FTSE-100 Index.
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
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should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Correction Not Over Yet Despite Bounce
Some emailed to say they had a hard time finding the short term trading signals we mentioned yesterday.
Those signals are on the Trading Page, which has a link in the main page. To make it easier to find,
we have added a link to that page in the Quick Links section at the top of the page.
The link is "For Traders Only" because it's for those who are nimble traders only.
The VLE-DJ indicator signals are shown midway in the right column on the Trading Page. That
small window automatically refreshes itself every minute during the trading day. The value of
the spread shown is a link to the chart -- if you click on it, it will open the chart in a new window.
Others said they couldn't find the link to the Model Portfolio. So, we added a more prominent link to that page also.
The Model Portfolio is for investors only. This is basically a portfolio for the long
term, not for traders at all.
Speaking of the Model Portfolio, it has been weathering these headwinds in good shape. At the
close Wednesday, it showed a gain of 7.18% since we started it just about one month ago.
Apparently, the big sellers on Tuesday spent the night celebrating and slept in Wednesday.
However, we don't think we've seen the last of them just yet. The wave pattern begs for more
decline here. And, we haven't seen the kind of panic to buy puts amongst option players that
would indicate a bottom just yet. However, the 24th is a Time Ratio turning point from two different
measurements, one saying it should be a low and the other saying it should be a high, so we could
not only see a short term reversal of trend on Thursday of some significance, we could see volatility
in both directions.
Dow 10,611 is the 50% retracement level for the previous rally and the market found solid
support there Wednesday. But, the lower Bollinger Band at 10,400 is likely to be tested before
this correction is finished.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
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bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Meeting the Headwinds
The short term trading sell signal we got midday last Thursday from our VLE-DJ spread indicator is proving very
profitable for traders. At the time the signal was given the Dow was trading just above 10,800.
As of the close Tuesday, it was just clinging to 10,600. And, the indicator remains on that same sell signal:
This downleg is unfolding in a fast and furious way, suggesting it will play itself out relatively quickly.
This is the second shoe dropping after the first shoe dropped just after the New Year began.
Yesterday, we mentioned that our Model Portfolio would be hitting some headwinds this week in the
form of a declining market. So far, it's been no problem as the Model Portfolio actually continued
to rise Tuesday despite the down market. That portfolio is now up 7.09% on the year.
This illustrates a couple of points:
- A diversified long term portfolio can sometimes weather the storm pretty well;
- A short term trading position can buffer the overall portfolio by hedging against market declines.
As for the rest of the week, we expect volatility to continue high as we go into the next
trading low. The 39-week exponential moving average now seems a likely target for the correction.
Right now, the SPX's 39-week moving average is at 1151. Our wave count shows this decline
to be a very probable wave C down in an A-B-C correction which started at the early 2005 high.
The A-wave ended at 1163.75, so look for that low to be broken, accompanied by panic selling and
a very low $-weighted call-put ratio for the OEX. That will be the signal to get ready to do some
buying, of course.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Model Portfolio
Many US markets were closed Monday observing a minor government holiday.
We restarted our Model Portfolio last month and it's off to a good start, up 6.59%
to date. Of a total of twenty stocks in the portfolio, only three are showing paper losses.
Our five biggest gainers are ahead 22.33%, 22.32%, 15.02%, 14.47% and 14.23% -- all
as of the close Friday.
This week will present a challenge, however. We've had the wind at our back, but it
has shifted and we're going to be hitting a headwind that could last into next week by
some measures. The S&P 500 Index could retest January lows, although that's probably
a worst-case scenario. In any case, a test of the 55-day moving average is very likely to occur.
World markets were generally quiet on Monday. A slide into the end of month is likely
for many, which should setup a very good buying opportunity.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Bond Bubble Popped
Last week we got confirmation that the Bond Bubble had popped with rising
long term interest rates the new direction. The Producer Price Index registered
a 10% annualized gain last month, suggesting that inflation may be the primary
force motivating the Federal Reserve. That's a change in psychology we've been
waiting months to happen in the bond market. Up until the end of January, the
bond market had been buoyed by assumptions that:
- Inflation was well under control. In fact, many bond participants believed that
deflation was still a present danger.
- The economy was slowing rapidly and destined to enter a recession.
- Foreign central bankers were inevitably going to loan money to the US government
to finance whatever deficits the government wished to run.
While short term interest rates have almost trebled since the bottom of the
last recession, long term rates have remained stubbornly low, causing an extended
run of mortgage refinancing and overinvestment in real estate. That is going to come
to a screeching halt very soon now that long term rates are following short term
ones to the upside.
Despite the common feeling among investors, rising interest rates are not
always bad for stock prices. And, of course, investors can profit from rising
interest rates by investing in a reverse bond fund, such as RisingRates.com, which closed up 1.3% as the long
bond fell 1.0% in price yesterday. We discuss this topic, as well as many markets, in this
weekend's
Detailed Comments . . . .
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Sellers Prevail
The market pulled back Thursday as our short term VLE-DJ indicator went into sell
mode for the first time in almost a week. This consolidation should last for most
of next week, but since options expiration takes place Friday, we should see the
market manipulated for the benefit of option short sellers and to the detriment
of option buyers. The QQQQs Maximum Pain value is 38 and they closed the day at 37.47,
suggesting that a slight upward tilt into expiration Friday afternoon could maximize
shorts' profits. The short term trend, however, still appears to be pointed down for the next week.
The larger trend still is pointed up. One of the weakest sectors last year was
the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX), but recent action in the sector suggests that may be
slowly becoming the sector of choice in the second half of 2005:
We'll discuss the longer term prospects for the market in this weekend's
update.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Conundrum
Alan Greenspan spoke to Congress Wednesday and said, in part,
"For the moment, the broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond markets remains a conundrum. Bond price movements may be a short-term aberration, but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience."
Greenspan was speaking of the fact that long term bonds have been rising in price in
the face of falling short term bond prices. Looked at in the interest rate dimension,
long term bond rates have fallen while the Fed has almost tripled short term interest rates.
Most expected the long bond rate to rise, sending bond prices tumbling. To those who
honor the wisdom of the bond market, this has been a sign that the recovery was in
trouble. However, Greenspan doesn't agree:
"All told, the economy seems to have entered 2005 expanding at a reasonably good pace, with inflation and inflation expectations well-anchored."
The bond market sold off on those comments, indicating it is close to changing its collective
"mind" about those assumptions it has made about the economy. And, we have very significant
turn dates coming up which suggest that although bond rates could decline just a bit more,
time is running out on this bond bull market. We suspect bond rates will be climbing before
too much longer. We have additional comments (for subscribers only) on our Daily Chart Comments page.
See TLT in particular.
The Fed upped its growth estimates for the US economy. They now look for a 2005 growth rate of
3¾-4% with an inflation rate of 1½-1¾%.
The stock market took the news well, with the leading sectors gaining. However, interest-sensitive
issues declined. This skewed the breadth figures to nearly neutral.
Although we suspected our ace indicator, the VLE-DJ, would issue a short term sell signal
(a sign of a short term pullback within a longer term bull trend) on Wednesday, it actually
continued on the short term buy signal it gave early Friday morning. However, the market probably
is going to pull back at some point here in order to setup the next leg up. We remain fully
invested on a long term basis, but wouldn't be averse to some short term hedging against a
pullback if a sell signal is generated.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Market at Major Resistance
The stock market rallied right into major resistance Tuesday. The Semiconductor
Index (SOX) almost touched the overhead polytrend resistance line we've featured
on its chart for the past couple of months:
Our best intraday trading indicator, the VLE-DJ Spread (which we use to help trade the Russell 2000 emini futures), after its last buy signal Friday
morning, has flirted a couple of times with sell signals, the first time midafternoon on Monday
and again at midafternoon on Tuesday. Late buying has pulled it up from that sell point into the close on both days.
We suspect, though, that it won't be long at all before that trading indicator will flip into
sell mode for a dip back toward the January lows in the stock market. Now, this is a trading
indicator and we remain bullish and fully invested in the stock market from an investment perspective, but are looking to hedge
with a short term bearish position in our trading accounts for an expected dive in the
stock market into the month-end period. We always use trailing stop loss orders to protect
our capital in our trading accounts, of course, as everyone should.
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Powerful Bull Market in London
One market which has been a Guiding Light for the US stock market has been London's
Financial-Times 100 Index (FTSE-100). The accumulation-distribution curve turned skyward
a few weeks ago and hasn't shown any divergence so far. And, prices have unfolded in a
very powerful Elliott Wave 3 pattern.
However, after powerful wave 3's come consolidative wave 4's. And, the slackening volume
and resistance directly overhead suggests we're very close to that point now:
If London does go into a wave 4 consolidation, the US markets are sure to follow.
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by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Resilience
We hope you're enjoying Free Week at Elliott Wave International. It's always
great to get an alternate interpretation (although, their current bullish stance on the
stock market and gold stocks in particular certainly agrees with our own current views --
but our wavecounts differ substantially on the longer term time horizon!),
especially when it's absolutely free! If you haven't signed up yet, do so with this link:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue.
Last week, stocks had an intraweek 50% retracement and bounced right back. This shows a strong
market with "bargain buyers" willing to step up to the plate even with prices falling. Although
the midweek dip may have only been the first leg down in a second wave correction -- in other
words, another shoe could drop this week -- our newly-restarted Model Portfolio is off to a
great start, up 4.41% as of Friday's close.
The mining stocks certainly helped as they had been a temporary drag when we first bought
them. But, the mining indices certainly point to more gains ahead:
Dips are buying opportunities in several markets and we'll look at them in this weekend's
Detailed Comments for Subscribers.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Bouncing Back
The stock market bounced back strongly on Thursday, reversing Wednesday's decline. However,
lack of volume suggests that the consolidation may not have been enough to provide the kind
of firepower the market needs to break out to new highs and stay there. But, if volume can
come through on Friday as it did last Friday, we could have a big move ahead.
The accumulation-distribution pattern in the NYSE Composite Index shows that the line
has already moved to a new high with prices lagging slightly behind. This is bullish
divergence, with a promise of new all-time highs ahead:
One of the strongest sectors has been the Oil & Gas Index. It projects higher prices
into 2006, although an intermediate term peak in late February (coinciding with a peak in
oil prices) could send the index into a consolidation for many months:
That late February peak in oil prices could coincide with the beginning of the next leg up in the broad stock market.
It's also lining up as a very significant turning point in interest rates (from down to up) and a big
pickup in economic activity.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Consolidation Time
Contrarians know -- it's always good to examine the case for the other side, no matter how
strong your own opinion is. And, it's totally free:
Free Week at EWI Is Here: Starting Wednesday, February 9th at 5:00pm EST, you can get one FreeWeek of forecasts from Elliott Wave International.
You'll get forecasts for the DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Index and analysis of cultural trends from Elliott Wave International, the worlds largest and best-known market forecasting company. EWI uses the incomparable Elliott Wave Principle to provide forecasts of every major freely traded market in the world.
During their FreeWeek event, you get complete access to three forecasting services: The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Short Term Update and Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. You shouldn't miss this event. You can get access to their FreeWeek by clicking the following link:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue
We've mentioned that bull markets climb a "Wall of Worry" many times. This retracement is a
good example of how the market will plunge and shake the shares from the hands of weak
investors. However, amidst the carnage, the mining stocks showed good strength and may
have turned the corner, along with the US Dollar (in the opposite direction, of course).
The resignation of Hewlett-Packard's embattled CEO set the stage for the selloff in IBM
shares. That stock dropped back to the rising support polytrendline. Although we did expect
a retest of that trendline, we did not expect it this soon. We'll be watching IBM for a possible sell signal
in coming days.
We had remarked on the market looking tired in recent days. While there was the notable
exception of last Friday, with strong volume and a breakout through important retracement
levels, the volume on the rally has admittedly been too weak to carry the market substantially higher.
Indeed, the Small Caps were the only index able to briefly punch through to a new all-time high
last week before slipping back. Thus, we should look upon this pause as a time for the
market to gather its strength for a stronger assault on the highs. Monday is a turning
point from the point of view of several indicators, so a consolidation into that timeframe
would be longer term a very positive development. We had thought it would be a high, but a
trading low would be a more bullish scenario.
The pullback doused nascent bullish sentiment. Our OEX Dollar-Weighted Call-Put Ratio, which
was over 3 on Tuesday, fell below 1 on Wednesday as traders rapidly changed their minds about
the rally. That's another positive development.
The high tech sectors were hard hit in the 2000-2002 bear market. And, they have yet to
recover fully. The leading indices in the high tech sectors are the NASDAQ-100 (NDX)
and Semiconductor Sector (SOX). Although they continue to be very weak, the resistance
polytrendline drawn along the highs in the SOX chart project an upturn coming in a few months:
Charts like this, which show the advance-decline line for the index charted, can be
found on our Daily Index Charts page on our subscriber website. The names of
these charts end in "ADLINE"; the chart above is named "SOXADLINE". Similar charts of
DJ, NDX, SPX, VLE, MID, SML, BTK, HUI and XAU can be found on that page.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Stocks Consolidate Gains
Free Week at EWI Is Coming Wednesday: Good news! Starting Wednesday, February 9th at 5:00pm EST, you can get one FreeWeek of forecasts from Elliott Wave International.
You'll get forecasts for the DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Index and analysis of cultural trends from Elliott Wave International, the worlds largest and best-known market forecasting company. EWI uses the incomparable Elliott Wave Principle to provide forecasts of every major freely traded market in the world.
During their FreeWeek event, you get complete access to three forecasting services: The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Short Term Update and Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. You shouldn't miss this event. You can get access to their FreeWeek by clicking the following link:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue
The stock market consolidated its gains Tuesday after a 9-trading-day advance. This consolidation
is best counted as a wave 4 within a five-wave Elliott Wave move. After five waves up, we should see a larger
retracement, which will provide yet another buying opportunity as this bull market climbs
a Wall of Worry. A true bull market will rise relatively slowly, with brief, but sharp,
corrections. It's those sharp corrections which dislodge traders from their positions.
The Wall was looking a bit ragged Tuesday, though. Our OEX Dollar-Weighted Call-Put Ratio
came in at 3.39, reflecting a huge imbalance of option speculator bullishness. Now, a ratio this tilted
to the bullish case isn't immediately a contrary indicator. Typically, we will see a "declining tops"
pattern in the ratio as we approach the actual trading high -- often the top is signaled with a ratio
of 2:1 a couple of days before that actual price high.
Yesterday, we called the Social Security system a Ponzi Scheme. Some claimed we were
making a political statement. Nope, we were simply stating a fact, not taking any position
on Social Security pro or con. Nor were we making a political statement. The only real difference between
Social Security and a true Ponzi Scheme is that the former is legal and the latter is not.
If you want more information on the subject, read Insecurity of Social Security
("http://www.finance.cch.com/text/c40s05d060.asp").
John Mauldin sends out a couple of interesting articles every week. In this week's
"Outside the Box", he features an article entitled, Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon,
("http://investorsinsight.com/article.asp?id=jmotb020705")
which admittedly isn't that catchy a title. But, the author, Myles Zyblock, makes a compelling
case that we are in the midst of a major trend change in interest rates and inflation.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Balancing the Books
Free Week at EWI Is Coming Wednesday: Good news! Starting Wednesday, February 9th at 5:00pm EST, you can get one FreeWeek of forecasts from Elliott Wave International.
You'll get forecasts for the DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, Bonds, U.S. Dollar Index and analysis of cultural trends from Elliott Wave International, the worlds largest and best-known market forecasting company. EWI uses the incomparable Elliott Wave Principle to provide forecasts of every major freely traded market in the world.
During their FreeWeek event, you get complete access to three forecasting services: The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Short Term Update and Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. You shouldn't miss this event. You can get access to their FreeWeek by clicking the following link:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=/freeweek/&cn=mktclue
Interesting Bond Market Factoid
Among much other useful investment info we recently gleaned from Don Coxe's latest call
(Realplayer link: http://www.jonesheward.com/Commentary/p_Commentary.aspx
Windows Media Player link: http://www.bmoharrisprivatebanking.com/webcast.asp):
Last year, the US trade deficit with China was $176 Billion. The Chinese, in turn,
bought $175 Billion worth of US Treasuries. Must have been a rounding error someplace -- they missed
balancing the account by a billion. We bought their goods with dollars and they purchased our
governmental debt with those same dollars.
What a wonderful exchange we have with the Chinese: we get the
goods they produce and they get our paper in return. And, as a side-effect, interest rates bump along at
record lows, blowing real estate Bubbles all over the land. All of this financial engineeering is courtesy of the government
which brought us the Social Security Ponzi Scheme.
The TYX Index measures the interest rate on the 30-year bond. It looks like it's headed for
a double bottom very soon. This is going to setup a wonderful opportunity to sell bonds short:
Stocks paused in the uptrend Monday, but this rally isn't finished. After a brief rest,
stocks should break to new all-time highs once again. Actually, the small caps already did -- they
poked their heads above the old high intraday on Monday. The others should follow the charge
up the hill no later than Valentine's Day ± a couple of trading days.
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spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Free Week is Coming Again This Week!
Investors should make it a point to get all sides of the story when it comes to the markets.
That's why we think
Elliott Wave International's Free Week is a wonderful opportunity to get a point of view you
may not actually agree with, but should consider. On Wednesday, they will open their doors for a free week,
but you have to join Club EWI for free before you can access their free analysis.
How? That's easy, just visit:
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url=club/join/&cn=mktclue
to sign up for Club EWI and you'll be ready to go when Free Week starts Wednesday at
5pm Eastern Time.
Stocks: A Surprisingly Weak Jobs Number
The US Labor Dept announced on Friday that a shockingly low number of new jobs had been
created in January. Does this mean the economy is falling back into recession, as the bond
market has been intimating for months? Well, we don't think so -- we think this is just a
"mid-cycle" pause before an acceleration higher in jobs and economic growth, but the level
of repurchase agreements issued by the Fed suggests a weak economy very similar to that of
exactly one year ago. You'll recall that the "soft patch" of 2004 persisted into August:
The interesting thing about the 146,000 new jobs created in January is that the Labor
Dept subtracted 280,000 from the figure that was actually reported for the month
before coming up with the number. That means that the raw figure reported to the government
was 426,000 new jobs. For whatever reason, the statisticians at the Labor Dept think that
somehow employers overcounted more than a quarter million new jobs in one month. At least
they're consistent: they subtract similar figures every January.
The other puzzling aspect of the report was that the unemployment rate actually dropped
to 5.2%. It wasn't that long ago that an unemployment rate of 6% was considered "full employment"
and anything lower highly inflationary.
In light of these odd, contradictory figures, perhaps its not surprising that not only did the bond market
soar on expectations of a recession which might be underway now, but both the stock market and
the US Dollar rallied sharply higher! That was a definite shift in pattern as rallies in the
bond market had correlated closely with declines in stocks as money sloshed out of equities
and into yield-bearing instruments at the slightest hint of economic weakness. Apparently,
the stock market concentrated on the idea that the Federal Reserve would have to stop raising
interest rates due to the weak economy.
It's very likely that one of these markets is wrong. But, which one? We'll discuss this
point in this weekend's
Detailed Comments for Subscribers.
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Market Tries to Retrace
The market slipped down the greased pole Thursday as the Monthly Buying Spree
seemed to subside, as expected, but the buyers were eager to use the dip for opportunities.
The old laggard Dow lost only 0.03% for the day, but our Relative Strength measure
showed the Value Line underperforming the Dow by 0.28% and the Russell 2000 underperforming
by 0.40%. Since these are two of the strongest sectors, it's clear that the retracement
isn't over just yet.
Moving to the NASDAQ, where we like to see the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) and the Semiconductor Index
(SOX) leading the market, they were backpedaling furiously, both down over 1% compared to the
Dow. Again, it's clear that more
of a correction needs to occur before the market can build up a good head of steam to the
upside.
The correction is likely to retrace 38-50% of the initial leg up and should bottom along
the support trendlines shown on the quarter-hourly charts on the website. That should mark
a great trading buying opportunity for a more powerful leg to come in the future.
The big news Friday will be the January Employment Report, which is due out at 8:30am
EST (7:30 Central in Chicago where bond trading is expected to be fast and furious).
As we showed you yesterday, the range traced out in the hour following last month's report
enveloped the entire ensuing month in the 10-year note market. This month's report is likely to see a more muted
reaction, but the contracting triangle pattern that is being traced out suggests no
overall direction is likely to be found until that pattern is completed.
Stocks will likely take their short term cues from bonds. If the bond market goes
up, stocks should go down, and vice versa. At this point in the economic cycle
good news for bonds is bad news for stocks because good news for bonds would be an
approaching recession, which is not good for corporate earnings.
Due to the continuing (and worsening) problem with email on the Internet, we are
adding the following for all those subscribers who are no longer able to receive our
daily updates:
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by
spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you
should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit:
http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Fed Hikes Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve raised rates in a "measured move" Wednesday. Every six weeks, like clockwork,
the Fed raises short term rates and narrows the spread between overnight rates and long term rates.
This is a case of the unstoppable force (the Fed) closing on the immovable object (long term interest
rates in the bond market). We are going to bet that the bond market blinks. But, it may take one
more rate hike in six weeks before that happens.
Amazingly, since the last Employment Report, the March 10-year note futures have traded within the price range
of the day that report was released!
The support polytrendline rolls over its high in late February. But, the apex of the triangle
is in March. Those two measures of the top are saying we will likely have to wait until the next
Fed meeting to see a real top in the bond market.
January's Employment Report will be released on Friday morning at 8:30 am EST. We offer the
caveat that if you're trading bond futures, it's good money management to flatten positions
going into the report. You can see from the chart that they took out both the longs and the shorts
last month in a big hurry and ended up going nowhere for both that day and for the whole month.
The stock market is looking tired here and although it did move up on Wednesday, it's time for
it to come back to retrace some of the recent gains.
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If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Down
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Worldwide Stock Rally In Progress
It's not hard to find bull markets these days -- they're all over the planet. Starting with
one of the strongest bull markets, here is the Australian stock market:
The Dutch AEX clearly wants to push higher:
The British market has a lot of potential left -- and could easily exceed our target zone:
The US market has been in new high ground now for over a year:
There's always a bull market somewhere -- you just have to know where to look for it. The small
cap index (SML) has already retraced 70% of its January decline!
However, the market rally we've been enjoying started on the 24th. It has pushed the leading
indices into the upper Bollinger Band. Now that's very bullish because it indicates that higher
highs are definitely ahead. But, it also may bring in a minor pullback. This is an ongoing
uptrend, a "wave 3 of 3" so to speak, and it's no reason not to put fresh cash to work if we
do get that dip.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: IBM Leads Market Higher
Bellwether IBM found support on our T1 polytrendline last week and
has rallied strongly from that test, leading the stock market higher:
The stock has reached both the middle band (dotted line) and the 13-week moving average (solid
line). Some backing and filling may be necessary -- even a test of the rising trendline. The
bullish divergence on the oscillator suggests that the trend is now up both for IBM and the
whole stock market.
The bond market has been in a bull market since 1981 -- going on 24 years now.
We suggest there's little gas left in the tank to keep pushing bond prices higher (rates
lower), especially with inflation picking up and the Fed slowly raising short term rates.
We may be very close to the ultimate high in bonds right now:
The "Under the Counter" Market Known As NASDAQ
We usually advocate the use of actual stop orders -- except for the stock market. The following
chart shows what can happen even to the most liquid stock in the whole stock market, the QQQQs (cubes),
representing the NASDAQ-100 Index of the top hundred stocks on the NASDAQ. It appears that the
old "Under the Counter" market still can't be trusted -- the 6% drop one December day was not
due to bad data -- it really happened:
If you're trading individual stocks, even ETFs, this should be a lesson to never use actual
stop orders. Instead, set a mental stop price. If your stock closes under it, sell it on the opening
the next trading day.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Up
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Iraqi Elections Weigh on Market
Stocks continued to build a base for the coming rally last week as the impending Iraqi Elections
Sunday weighed on investors. Once again, the overall action was very bullish as stocks refused to
give back a significant portion of their previous rally gains. The stronger sectors in the market
continued to show strength as trader sentiment moved into the overly-bearish region that
we like to see a couple of days before a big upsurge begins.
Even the blue chips were strong as the Dow Industrials managed to hold above their long term
support polytrendline:
The bond market continues to exhibit amazing strength in the face of a series of
short term interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. But, it's only a matter of time
before reality smacks the bond market in the face and long term interest rates start
rising as well. We may get one more "last hurrah" rally in the bond market as rates spike
down, but that will be the opportunity of the century to sell bonds short.
More on these markets and many others can be found in this weekend's
Detailed Comments for subscribers.
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Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Bottoming
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
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Stocks: Bullish Signs Abound
The stock market is showing excellent strength now, despite the bottoming action in the blue
chips. The reason we say this is that the broad market is outperforming the blue chips
and that has been a sure sign of strength in the past:
For members who are looking for ideas on what stocks to buy, we have moved 19 stocks
from our Watch List to our Position List, meaning that we will record these hypothetical
buys as of the close Friday (unlike the original Model Portfolio which featured a real
account with real money, we are restarting this Model Portfolio with hypothetical trades only).
Details can be found on the main website in the "What's New?" section. Because this
is a hypothetical portfolio, it will never reflect real account results and should not be
viewed as an indication that any investor can duplicate its performance. It is purely an
imaginary portfolio which is being used to demonstrate a fictional scenario for an imaginary
investor in the stock market.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
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Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Basing
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
· ^BTK
· ^TYX
Sector Performance Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Sector Acceleration Since:
8 Apr 1999
· 18 Oct 1999
· A Week Ago
· A Fortnight Ago
Subscribers, please visit our website featuring thousands of individual stock, index
and futures charts with technical studies, including many you will find nowhere else.
Just go to: http://marketclues.blogspot.com
and click on the MyClues Home Page link on the left side of the page. Then, enter
your email address in the form provided.
Non-subscribers can get a free ride for a 3-month trial subscription! Simply email
bcarver@yahoo.com and state, "I'd like a free trial, please".
This will give you subscriber access to the site for at least 3 months. No obligation to
pay -- this is absolutely free.
Stocks: Broad Market Rallies Sharply Higher
Our expectation has been for this week to see basing action. So far, most of the action is
a bit more positive than that. The broad market, represented by the Value Line, Russell 2000,
Small Caps and Mid Caps, has been outperforming the blue chips handily. Our Value Line - Dow
Industrials Spread Indicator triggered another buy signal on the action:
This is a strong warning that the correction is coming close to an end.
The Dollar Index appears to have hit solid resistance and that has given the stock
market some breathing room here. But, we may have a bit more short term strength in the
DX to contend with, suggesting that the waning stock market correction just might continue,
if only for a few days:
Weakness in the US Dollar Index correlates strongly with rallies in the broad stock market.
Sentiment is very supportive of a turn to the upside very soon in the blue chips. Our
OEX Dollar-Weighted Call-Put Ratio closed at 0.50 Wednesday, the "official" overly-bearish
level which typically precedes significant intermediate lows by 2-3 trading days. The market is
likely to be cautious going into this Sunday's Iraqi Elections, but likely to rally sharply higher
once that uncertainty is removed.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Daily Chart Comments
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
If you haven't taken out a paid subscription yet, it's easy to do either with your credit card or
by check. Visit our Subscription Page ("http://www.marketclues.net/clues/sub.html") for details!
Format for printing.
[Go back]
Stocks: Short Term Direction 1+ Days: Sideways
90+ Days: Up
Long-Term (2+ Years): Up
Popular Indices:
^SPX
· ^IXQ
· ^NDX
· ^SOX
· ^DJI
· ^MID
· ^OEX
· ^NYA
· ^VLE
· ^RUT
· ^SML
· ^CRB
· ^HUI
·